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2020 Presidential Primary in West St. Paul

Thanks to Cherokee Service for their support.

On Tuesday, Minnesota had the first Presidential Primary since 1992. Nearly 745,000 people turned out for the contested DFL primary, a vast improvement over the 207,000 participants in the 2016 DFL caucuses. Former Vice President Joe Biden won in Minnesota with 39% of the vote.

On the GOP side, President Donald Trump was the only name on the ballot and took 98% of the vote.

West St. Paul Presidential Primary

The result wasn’t much different here in West St. Paul, with a few slight exceptions.

Turnout

In terms of turnout (based on registered voters vs. actual voters), statewide turnout looks to be 26%. In West St. Paul, turnout looks to be 31% (woot woot).

Since we haven’t had a presidential primary since 1992, it’s hard to know if that’s good. For the 2018 state-wide primary, which included contested races on both sides of the aisle for governor, West St. Paul had a 34% turnout. If the GOP presidential race was contested this year, turnout likely would have been a lot higher.

West St. Paul Compared to Minnesota

The West St. Paul results were mostly in line with statewide results, within a percentage point. The biggest variance was for the two at the top, Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Biden dropped three points between the state and West St. Paul, coming in at 35.5%. Sanders gained almost three points, coming it at 32.7%.

Elizabeth Warren also scored 1.5 more points in West St. Paul than statewide, Klobuchar dropped 1.3 points, and Trump’s result was 1.4 points lower in West St. Paul. All other candidates in West St. Paul were within 1 percent of the state result.

If that means anything, maybe it’s that West St. Paul is slightly more anti-establishment than the state as a whole. Or maybe more anti-establishment folks turned out in West St. Paul. But at most we’re looking at a three point swing.

North vs. South

Another interesting split in West St. Paul is by precinct. While Biden won across the city and won wards one and three—he lost the first precinct in each ward to Sanders. That means the northern half of the city—divided roughly at Emerson—went for Sanders while the southern half went for Biden.

Be Engaged and Go Vote

While the presidential contest is over until November, there are still plenty of party events, including conventions and endorsement contests, and maybe a primary in August.

The local GOP group has a Congressional District 2 debate on Thursday, March 5 in Mendota Heights as five candidates will debate to see who should go up against incumbent DFL Representative Angie Craig.

The GOP also has conventions on March 26 and April 7 to endorse candidates for the Minnesota House and Senate respectively, as well as to elect delegates.

The local DFL group has a convention on March 15 to endorse candidates and elect delegates.

The general election is November 3.

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